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Prediction for CME (2024-10-26T06:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-26T06:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34212/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed towards the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and X1.8 flare from Active Region 13873 (S16E60) starting around 2024-10-26T06:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A wide opening of field lines is visible over the southeast limb in SDO AIA 171 and 193, with post eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 starting around 07:50Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-28T04:13Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-28T02:20Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-26 09:04
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-26 06:48
 - Radial speed: 1523.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 53 deg
 - Eruption location: S32E54
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 862.90 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-10-28 02:20 (i.e. predicted transit time: 44.55 hours)
Lead Time: 28.88 hour(s)
Difference: 1.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-10-26T23:20Z
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